Doris Beaver’s
EYE ON GILPIN . . . 
June 25, 2012 
PART VII - LOWER NORTH FOR FIRE
   There is no dearth of forecasts provided to and available to the Colorado State Forest Service (CSFS) and the U.S. Forest Service, but regardless of the number, if they are ignored . . . Readers are encouraged to keep in mind as this edition is read, the forecasts were ongoing and being issued, yet the CSFS chose to stop patrols of the prescribed burn area after only two days, contrary to the minimally acceptable three (3) days of patrol once the fire is declared out. [Interagency Prescribed Fire Guide (2008) as discussed in the May 7th and June 11th editions.] The forecasts are widely distributed and have use far beyond what we see as our local weather forecasts--they are not just issued as a part of the process for go/no go on prescribeded burns. 
   Little notice was given by the local media of the weather forecasts that were issued prior to the ignition date--March 22, 2012. Those forecasts, issued as early as Tuesday, March 20th, highlighted increasing southwesterly winds, warm temperatures and high fire danger for Monday, March 26th (day 6 of the LNFF prescribed burn). Those forecasts were available to the CSFS and were a part of the planning process for the prescribed burn that escaped. 
   The National Weather Service issues Fire Weather Planning Forecasts (FWFs), and issued one for Colorado Fire Weather Zone 216 on Tuesday, March 20th and Wed, March 21st. The FWF issued on the day of ignition was the first issued to include Monday, March 26th (day 6). 
   Also available to the CSFS is the Haines Forecast and Manual Calculations (Haines Index) which measures potential for large fire growth (Plume-Driven), derived from the stability (temperature difference between different levels of the atmosphere) and moisture content (dew point depression) of the lower atmosphere, and calculated over three ranges:  low elevatiom (960-850mb), mid elevation (850-700mb) and high elevation (700-500mb). Haines Index of 6 translates to a high potential for large fire growth. 
   The Rocky Mountain Area Predictive Services Outlook (the Outlook) is used in the national outlook as well as the Rocky Mountain Area (so it's not just an area name). Bass's report describes the Outlook two ways--nationally and locally. Nationally "combines forecast fuel dryness with significant weather triggers to identify high risk areas for new large fires or large fire growth of existing fires for the purpose of national resource movement and allocation."
   Locally, the Outlook "produces weather and fuel dryness outlooks and corresponding large fire risk for the Rocky Mountain area (Wyoming, Colorado, South Dakota, Kansas and Nebraska)." Different descriptors are used to convey large fire risk, but are utilized for the same purpose as national level (to determine long-range regional resource demand and allocation, such as where to send the tankers that drop the fire retardant). The daily fire potential maps for Wednesday, March 21st and Friday, March 23rd, valid for Monday, March 26th, showed the weather and fuel dryness forecast indicated widespread increasing winds and low humidity. The corresponding large fire risk outlook showed "high" to "extreme." 
   Last week's edition brought the chronology to Sunday, March 25th, the date Bass's report indicates there were no patrol operations, that "the burn was unstaffed."
   On Sunday, March 25th, the National Weather Service forecast issued at 0526 MDT contained a Fire Weather Watch . . . At 1215 MDT, the Fire Weather Watch was upgraded to a Red Flag Warning . . . for wind and low relative humidity ... in effect from 10 am to 7 p.m. MDT Monday. The Fire Weather Watch was thus no longer in effect, replaced with a Red Flag Warning, winds southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph, shifting to the west late in the afternoon.  
   On Sunday evening (March 25th), both the CSFS Fire Duty Officer and Jefferson County Dispatch received dispatches advising of the Red Flag Warnings for Monday. The Sunday, March 25th forecast issued at 1519 MDT for Monday, March 26th, that upgraded the Red Flag Warning also included this ominous statement: "These winds combined with relative humidities values around 10 percent and dry fuel will result in a very high potential for rapid fire growth."    The forecast issued on Monday, March 26th at 1542 MDTstated Red Flag Warning in effect from 10 am to 7 pm, strong winds Monday night over mountains and northern front range foothills with gusts up to 70 mph.  At 1751 MDT, the Red Flag Warning was extended to 9 pm. 
   And yet, the Lower North Fork Fire was ignited and the patrol time after it was declared out was shortened from the minimum three days to two days, even though smoke plumes were visible in two areas--the east and west areas of the prescribed burn area.
Mark Twain once said:  “The rule is perfect – in all matters of opinion our adversaries are insane.”  
Doris Beaver